The 2022 Ukraine/Russia War

[Seir]

I, like most of the world, have been very surprised at the performance of Ukraine's army against that of Russia. However, I think was might be more surprising is how utterly undertrained Russia's army has revealed itself. Long riding on its image as the successor of the much-feared Soviet Red Army, Russia has revealed the extent of harm corruption can have on even the largest of armies.

As if this date, the war continues with Ukraine scoffing any talks of peace terms that entertain the idea of Russia retaining any land it has gained so far. So I'd like to ask what everyone thinks has to be the endgame of Vladamir Putin now. It seems to me that Putin has to press on because of the possiblity that a loss in this war could very well the precursor to his own removal of power. However, I'm also of the feeling that the longer this war presses on the more likely he could find mutinous elements of the army that could force a repeat of the last revolutions from more than a hundred years ago.

[Deacon]

I'd like to ask what everyone thinks has to be the endgame of Vladamir Putin now. It seems to me that Putin has to press on because of the possiblity that a loss in this war could very well the precursor to his own removal of power. However, I'm also of the feeling that the longer this war presses on the more likely he could find mutinous elements of the army that could force a repeat of the last revolutions from more than a hundred years ago.

Like other rulers who depend on their own fake news and chaos to retain power, Putin set the whole thing up with exit strategy option founded in the same lies he used to justify the war: ousting Ukrainian nazis. It was dumb, sure, but he could at any point declare victory of the nazis and pull out, telling his people he has reinforced the world’s respect for Russia's military might.

The upside for him is that he has enough fans in his country that they might happily swallow that blue pill if it means they get to keep believing what they want to in spite of reality. The downside is that he can’t keep his blackout of social media and international news forever, and his national news machine could easily crack and falter. Then he could end up like Trump, forever declaring to his faithful loyalists that it’s the entire rest of the world that’s crazy, and he and his little bubble are the sole source of truth. No matter how devout his disciples, no matter how disinterested they are in reality, it’s not sustainable. In Putin’s case, he’s had the nation under his heel since the turn of the century, ruling with the aid of fear and violence to silence dissent, and the actual truth may eventually lead to his undoing.

[Doc Giggles]

Putin has the national media talking about how using a nuke would be good to do. They have even said that they could drop a small nuke on a small US town and the US would beg Russia for forgiveness. Only reason to do this is to prepare the Russian people for the use, and possible retaliation that would come from it. The longer Russia is held back, the higher the chance of Putin using one out of desperation.

[Deacon]

Only reason to do this is to prepare the Russian people for the use, and possible retaliation that would come from it.

That’s the only reason? The only reason? That seems like an unimaginative leap. A source would be nice, but just on the presumption that what you said is exactly accurate on its face, there’s no way Putin believes that, and it seems like a terrible stretch that he’d be willing to gamble on a restrained American response to nuking us.

[Martin Blank]

They have even said that they could drop a small nuke on a small US town and the US would beg Russia for forgiveness.

There is some argument that a single warhead would be a "ride-out" event, followed by a retaliatory response sent via the White House-Kremlin hotline (really an encrypted text connection from the start) explaining where the US (or possibly UK) would place a single warhead as a response, followed by de-escalatory talks. This is consistent with then-Soviet and now Russian "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. The entire scenario would be over in an hour or so. By the time the news could confirm the blast on US soil, the president would already be on mandatory emergency broadcast message channels explaining what had happened.

I don't know if Ukraine can "win," whatever that comes out to be. What I do see is the humiliation of Russia on a conventional level and the death of any future limitations on nuclear arsenals. I would love to see a cap of either 300 nuclear warheads or the existing number of nuclear warheads, whichever is lower, on all nuclear powers. But at this point, Russia would be hard-pressed to survive an invasion by Poland and Romania, so they're certainly not going to give up their most powerful arsenal.

[Seir]

Now I'm starting to believe that the corruption mechanic in Civilization III wasn't so exaggerated.

[Martin Blank]

For those who want to keep a little better track of movements in Ukraine, look for Prof. Michael Clarke on SkyNews videos on YouTube. He's provided some very useful information.