2020-21 US Political Possibilities

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NorthernComfort
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Re: 2020-21 US Political Possibilities

Post by NorthernComfort » Sat May 30, 2020 1:33 pm

I was never a huge fan of Hillary, not a fan of the status quo establishment etc etc. But I left my job in 2016 to work for her campaign because Trump was so specifically and individually dangerous. (Not to mention nauseating and hopelessly inept, etc etc)

But I did not have "Like summer of 1968 but worse" on my bingo card. Trump just called for a "MAGA night" at the White House to respond to the protests. Basically he is inciting his supporters to come out and attack demonstrators. Or, put more simply, he is Cartman screaming RACE WAR.

I am exhausted just thinking about this.
"I guess I have a gift for expressing pedestrian tastes. In a way, it's kind of depressing." -Bill Watterson

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Seir
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Re: 2020-21 US Political Possibilities

Post by Seir » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:23 pm

NorthernComfort wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 1:33 pm
Trump just called for a "MAGA night" at the White House to respond to the protests.
I am exhausted just thinking about this.
Fat chance of that happening now. We have fires lit near the White House complex and Furher Trump has fled to his bunker.
Yo Mav, I'm real happy for you and Imma let you finish but Hirschoff had the best sig trends of all time.

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Martin Blank
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Re: 2020-21 US Political Possibilities

Post by Martin Blank » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:29 am

Deacon wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 4:29 pm
Do you think Biden’s presiding over the confirmation hearings of Clarence Thomas 30 years ago is going to be a problem for him? If so, with whom? Compared to Trump, whom Jesus Christ himself sent to heal the nation, Biden is a saint in that department. Hardcore feminists might have to hold their nose a little to vote for him, but with a female running mate being likely, they might not find it so distasteful.
Some have attempted to raise the issue several times, though it hasn't stuck all that much. I think between his apology for that and his newfound awareness of his touching of women being unwelcome, he's found a new path. Maybe he'll screw it up, but I doubt we're going to hear two dozen women coming out accusing him of rape.

As to Republicans holding their nose, there doesn't need to be a lot. He won three states by the slimmest of margins. Flip that margin the other way, and Biden gets a much more serious win. That people like Bill Kristol are calling for it means some will listen (if Reagan is the patron saint of conservatism, Kristol is at least a senior cardinal). Maybe it will be enough.
If I show up at your door, chances are you did something to bring me there.

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Martin Blank
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Re: 2020-21 US Political Possibilities

Post by Martin Blank » Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:18 pm

The numbers are leaning further against Trump. The gap is now around 10% across all averages (which moderates CNN's 15% gap finding). Even in states Trump won, he's outside the polling error margins in most. Even in Florida, he's trending behind, though that's one state that is still within the error bars.

Of more interest at the moment is the generic ballot, which is around +10 in favor of Democrats. For comparison, it was +8 in favor of Democrats in 2018 when they gained 40 seats to take the House majority and did better than expected in the Senate, losing two seats despite having to defend 23 seats (including independents). It was almost tied in 2016, but looking all the way back to 2010, it was around +6 in favor of Republicans when Republicans stormed into the House majority with a gain of 63 seats and gained six seats on the other side of the Capitol Building to narrow the Democrats' Senate majority.

Senate polling is still thin, but the same states are still in play. There's less wiggle room with so few senatorial races open compared to the House, but right now, without significant changes, I am coming to expect a thin Democrat majority even without factoring in a Democrat Vice President. I found it very interesting that one poll that has Trump at +17 in Kentucky simultaneously has McConnell at -1 (statistical tie) with potential Democratic contender McGrath. Maybe it's got one or the other wrong, but McConnell may have rubbed too many Kentuckians the wrong way.
If I show up at your door, chances are you did something to bring me there.

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