The near-term future of the Republican Party

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Deacon
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:12 am

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/tr ... itarianism

Oh man. This is so good. Yes, it's long. But it's so incredibly important for everyone, but especially Republicans. I guess it's pretty obvious now why so few people supported Rand Paul in this year's climate. Brings a lot of things into focus.
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Arres » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:52 am

So, I just read straight through from Dec 10. Deacon's catch up response actually made me laugh aloud. This election has really crystallized for me that I have become genuinely socially liberal, though I'm still registered Republican. I still think of myself as fiscally conservative, but in a lot of areas that takes a near 2nd priority to social liberties. I'm hoping Bernie overtakes Hillary and somehow clinches the nomination, but I will vote Democrat over ANY of the current Republican offering. I'm not happy with my internal calculus of how..."honest and good"...a person Hillary is, but I am also aware of just how much negative scrutiny she's received in the last (good god) 24 years. I do respect her as a functional and capable politician however. Something Donald is obviously not. I find Ted to be vile, Marco soft, and John....whodat?
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:11 am

I'm not sure I could ever bring myself to vote for Hillary. She's earned every legitimate attack on her. She has all the crass ambition of Obama with none of the smoothness. She's cold and calculating, and while she's managed to avoid jail time, it's not because she hasn't committed some pretty severely illegal acts, dating all the way back to her family rule over Arkansas.

In Texas, and in my county, it doesn't really matter in the general election. Whoever the Republican nominee might be is (almost?) assuredly going to get the Texan delegates. So it's likely I'm going to be tossing my vote in for a 3rd party candidate if the political establishment allows that to happen, despite their legal maneuvering to try to stop it at all times.

I'm sad because it's truly has come down to a point where, yes, this is a crucial election. Over the next 8 years, we will most likely see far more than one seat on be Supreme Court be vacated and need to be filled. But neither party is particularly interested in freedom. The only person with a chance left to beat Trump is Cruz, and while he argues loudly for freedom, it's only on selective topics. Who is going to end marijuana prohibition, honor the Bill of Rights, and never go against a Sicilian when life is on the line?

If somehow Bernie wins out over Hillary, and we can only hope, I might would legitimately consider voting for him. Not so much because he has half a clue as to wtf he's talking about--he doesn't--but because he wouldn't be able to get much done in the face of both democratic and republican resistance, and with him at least you feel like you know where you stand, and without the hate.

The beautiful thing is that if either democratic candidate wins the herbal election, no matter who they are, the republicans will be piiiiiiiiised...
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by The Cid » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:25 pm

Deacon wrote:The only person with a chance left to beat Trump is Cruz, and while he argues loudly for freedom, it's only on selective topics.
Also, it will be a cold day in Hell before I trust someone from what used to be called the Religious Right to advocate for freedom in any meaningful way.

Mr. Evangelical is going to fight for freedom...to be an Evangelical Christian loudmouth like Ted Cruz.
Deacon wrote:Who is going to end marijuana prohibition, honor the Bill of Rights, and never go against a Sicilian when life is on the line?
Well on that first front, my state is pretty likely to legalize marijuana by the end of the year. A petition passed, so now the state legislature has to debate it, and when they inevitably kill it we'll be able to put the issue on the ballot for November because our state house is so badly broken that we basically just override them in elections to get what we want. And being that every other ballot question involving marijuana has passed by a 2-1 margin, come Christmastime my signature won't be the only green monster up here.

My only lament is that Vermont beat us to it. I so badly wanted to beat the biggest stoner state east of the Mississippi to the punch.
Deacon wrote:If somehow Bernie wins out over Hillary, and we can only hope, I might would legitimately consider voting for him. Not so much because he has half a clue as to wtf he's talking about--he doesn't--but because he wouldn't be able to get much done in the face of both democratic and republican resistance, and with him at least you feel like you know where you stand, and without the hate.
I somewhat agree with this and would throw in that I wish more politicians acted like Sanders.

No, obviously I don't want a bunch of socialists, but I mean in terms of "I believe this and I don't care what the major parties say I'm standing up for it." Imagine if Rand Paul had that or any other kind of a spine. Imagine if anyone else in DC were as honest. Imagine if anyone else ran their campaign without the crazy us-vs-them rhetoric. (Seriously, when New Hampshire was getting ready to vote we had all the ads. All the republicans seem to be talking about the End Times, Hillary's talking about how her party--not her but her party--needs to win or the world will end, Bernie's got a Paul Simon song going and everyone's smiling. He's like our candidate from another planet.) He's running an admirable campaign. Besides which, I'm economically conservative but I'm equally socially liberal. Sanders hardly represents any more compromise for me than Cruz would.

There's also this: I have no need to agree with the people for whom I vote. Why should I have to agree with a politician just to vote for them? I don't know enough about the military to properly weigh in on matters involving them, I'm not an economist, I'm not well-traveled enough to have a strong opinion on foreign policy in most cases. I do have opinions on these things, but I figure they're highly likely to be wrong or at least not well-informed. And since I watch every sport, I don't need to treat politics like a team sport. I have a bunch of teams. I don't need another.
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:42 pm

Agreed. The one thing Bernie's truly weak on--and it's a doozy--is foreign policy. That's one area where obviously Hillary has a lot more experience and knowledge. However, that doesn't mean her foreign policy is good. And I wouldn't say he's really substantively weaker than the Republican candidates.

Honestly, I don't know wtf is going to happen, and at this point I feel helpless to steer too many toward reason. It's enough to make a man say screw it and binge watch something on Netflix.

So 3 cops were shot during a firefight on Chicago's west side last night. Here's a quick and easy way to see if anyone campaigning is talking sense: to what or whom do they attribute cause? Do they blame poverty? Do they blame guns? Or do they suggest getting to the root of the system that encourages and foments violence? It only makes me more and more cynical when I see politicians only blaming things and offering "solutions" that both cement and increase the power and authority of government.

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The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by The Cid » Tue Mar 15, 2016 4:52 pm

Deacon wrote:Honestly, I don't know wtf is going to happen, and at this point I feel helpless to steer too many toward reason. It's enough to make a man say screw it and binge watch something on Netflix.
I'd suggest this as well, except that at this point if Frank Underwood were a real person I would vote for him given the alternatives.
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Hirschof wrote:I'm waiting for day you people start thinking with portals.

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Wed Mar 16, 2016 1:14 am

The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by NorthernComfort » Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:29 pm

Excellent write-up of the similarities between Trump and Reagan candidacies.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... trump.html
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by NorthernComfort » Wed Aug 10, 2016 5:39 am

I've spent the last week chatting with an old friend a lot about the future of the GOP. Our theories and speculations:

* Most likely outcome from here is a landslide victory for Clinton.
* Less likely, Johnson gets solid votes and further exacerbates Clinton landslide.
* Still less likely, Johnson is solid and it leads to a stronger Libertarian party for next election cycle and slowly starts to convert 2-party narrative to 3.
* Even less likely, Stein could do the same, and make it 4-party. (Neither of us think this is realistic.)

What are we thinking here? This is a much bigger blow than having Sarah Palin on the ticket in 08. This is going for broke.
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by The Cid » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:29 pm

Let's put it this way: I have never been more vocal in conversations about my Libertarian status, I am imploring every even vaguely "conservative" person I know (though, um, those labels shouldn't even exist anymore) to vote third party. Trump should finish third. He, and anyone who signed off on him, ought to be humiliated in November.

If Gary Johnson doesn't show up in the debates, maybe the system is rigged for people like Donald Trump.

I understand that many people think it's imperative to hold one's nose and vote for Hillary because, in no uncertain terms, Donald Trump must not become president. Even if it means Hillary will, and you know what? If someone feels that way go ahead, even I can't argue that right now. But to me, this is THE time to go third party, because if not now, when?

And since it's having a two party system that allowed Trump to happen, we need third parties more than ever.

If you were thinking of voting Trump, please ask me anything you want about Libertarians, I feel obligated to help guide you away from that utter maniac who thinks he can run for president by playing to the absolute worst of the absolute worst of us.

Oh, and other Libertarians: No more trying to change the GOP from within. This is what they are. They no longer deserve their "less odious option" status. They actively let this happen. If you're a Libertarian trying to hold out hope someone like the Paul family will be allowed in by the Republicans, let me tell you right now, you've already lost.
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:33 pm

[PS I agree fully and wholeheartedly with Cid's post above that he snuck in as a reply before I could submit my own]

No real clue at this point. If I had to call it, I think it's likely Hillary wins, Johnson makes enough of a showing for people to take notice, and Trump goes home a loser.

As far as the GOP is concerned, they've strayed so far into their own special interests that the only thing really propping them up anymore are fundamentalist Christians and racists, which unfortunately are not always different people, and a few single-issue voters on the topics of gun rights or lower taxes.

In doing so, they've backed themselves into a corner where they're essentially puppets of those evangelicals, and in a stunning victory for racism, even melted pencil troll Ted Cruz--who checks all the core's boxes--is defeated by a reality tv host's vaudeville act centered primarily around a total lack of thoughtfulness an tact. A big-mouthed orange Manhattanite born with a whole drawer full of silver spoons in his mouth and terrible facial habits should not, on paper, sweep the south. But he skipped dinner and went straight to dessert, calling to get rid of them goat fuckers (brown people from anywhere near the Middle East) and Messicans and to shut Hillary's dusty clam down for good.

That kind of stupid shit isn't sustainable. Because he accidentally won the nomination, and he doesn't know what to do with himself now, the Republican Party guys are scrambling to figure out wtf to do with this guy and how to best handle and spin and otherwise engage in a cleanup operation on a daily basis.

I think at this point maybe Trump is just swinging his dick for the fun of it, hoping to ingratiate himself with a certain classification of people before he's defeated on Election Day and can go back to his gaudy apartment and shady businesses.
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by NorthernComfort » Wed Aug 10, 2016 5:39 pm

Deacon wrote:But he skipped dinner and went straight to dessert, calling to get rid of them goat fuckers (brown people from anywhere near the Middle East) and Messicans and to shut Hillary's dusty clam down for good.
Hey man stop putting so much perfection in your posts, I nearly spat out my drink!

Yeah I see the GOP pretty much imploding at this point. I mean it's already imploded. Trump is just milking the lingering idiots for every ounce of aimless populist rage he can get. The question is will the GOP attempt to re-invent itself or will a totally new party be necessary to take in the refugees?
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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:26 pm

I know of at least a handful of friends who would've identified as Republicans who now do not, and mostly they're landing in the vaguely Libertarian world, acquiescing control of moral decisions in favor of more individual freedom and more streamlined and focused government.
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by Deacon » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:30 pm

PS There's always this problem, which is illustrated in today's SMBC:

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The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: The near-term future of the Republican Party

Post by NorthernComfort » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:42 pm

The people I know are all opposed to Trump but seem to think he's a passing storm and somehow we'll go back to Rubio in 2020. I just don't see it happening. A few Republican women I know will effectively be Democrats with their vote and policy wishes this election cycle, but they still identify Republican.

To be honest the only Trump supporters I know are elderly and they are people that I affectionately consider a little crazy.
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