NFL 2013

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The Cid
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by The Cid » Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:33 am

KC 21, Indianapolis 17 - Andy Reid learned from his mistakes in Philadelphia, and does a much better job in Kansas City of actually giving the ball to his best player (Charles) as well as clock management. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has a wildly up-and-down team that crushes teams some weeks and doesn't show up others. The Chiefs' defense is a definite advantage for them in this game, and I don't expect Kansas City to turn the ball over much. Reason I could be wrong: A dome is the worst place for the Chiefs. They need to be out in the cold, where their defense and running game can dominate. Playing indoors in Indy doesn't bode well. Also, Indianapolis has the best kicker in NFL history.

Philadelphia 28, New Orleans 13 - It's cold in the northeast. It is not "pass the ball deep all day" weather. New Orleans isn't the same team outdoors, and this kind of outdoors is particularly harsh. I think Chip Kelly's disregard for clock management could come back to haunt Philly at some point, but not against a Saints team that isn't built for cold weather football. Reason I could be wrong: I detest the New Orleans Saints and might be allowing that to cloud my judgment.

Cincinnati 24, San Diego 10 - Why are the Bengals an extremely dangerous team? Because they do four things very well: They play defense, they control the clock, they kick well, and they punt well. That means the Bengals are uniquely equipped to play playoff games in cold weather. Dalton could implode all of that, but against a team that very nearly lost a must-win game to a second-string team just last week the Bengals should be just fine. Reason I could be wrong: The Cincinnati Bengals have not won a playoff game since The Ickey Shuffle was a thing.

San Francisco 20, Green Bay 17 - Again: D, clock management, kicking game. San Francisco excels at these things. Good luck beating a team that does those things in a one-score game. When they control the clock and everything inside the opponent's thirty is a minimum of three all-but-guaranteed points. Reason I could be wrong: The Green Bay Packers losing in what could be -51 degree windchills seems far-fetched.
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:45 am

Colts - KC has been a dandy. It's been compared to Buffalo v Houston. I don't expect the victor to play well at all next week.

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by The Cid » Mon Jan 06, 2014 4:56 am

Like an idiot, I wrote:Andy Reid learned from his mistakes in Philadelphia, and does a much better job in Kansas City of ... as well as clock management.
Guess what? I was about as wrong as I've ever been about anything in sports. That was Andy Reid at his most Andy Reid. He wasted all three of his second half timeouts in mind-blowing fashion. Every criticism people have had about him came out in the second half yesterday.

After years and years of making fun of the guy for those exact issues, I let my guard down for just a moment and got Reid'd.
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:33 am

Hey, you were dead on about San Francisco. Kapernick 4, Rogers 0

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:12 pm

Divisional Round Predictions. Expect to be disappointed.

New Orleans 24, Seattle 27, OT. I expect a much more defensive attack from the Saints, but in the end, I think the Seahawks will win.

Indianapolis 14, New England 10. Let's face facts: these are two teams that are held up with duct tape and the power of the quarterback alone at this point. Luck is Elway 2.0 and Brady is Brady. I know Brady is good, but I also know the players aren't high fiving him either. Colts are rallying around and with Luck.

San Francisco 7, Carolina 10, OT. I fully expect both quarterbacks to go down and go down hard. I hope the backups are ready.

San Diego 24, Denver 21, OT. I don't know if San Diego if will win. I do know the Phillip Rivers bolo tie has got to go.

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:09 pm

Conference Championship Time!

Denver 10, New England 13. OT. Weather won't be an issue, it's expected to be 60ºF for a high, sunny and warm. This has been seen as a competition of the two quarterbacks and rightly so: Brady versus Manning, perhaps the very last change for both of these legends to reach the Super Bowl. I think what will happen is that both defenses will come to play and play well. Keep in mind that the winner will face best regular season defence from the NFC winner in the Super Bowl (Sea 1st, SF 5th in Yards per game; 1st and 3rd in points per game). So, I would expect that a defensive showing will be necessary for the NFC winner to think about during the fortnight interval. In the playoffs, Denver has had the better yards per play defence, 5.3 to 5.9 from the Patriots. I also think the other thing is that Payton Manning is essentially (4 - 10) versus Patriots for his lifetime. I don't see what Manning could alter that Belichick couldn't anticipate or quickly counter. I think it comes down to which defense has the better day, and I think it's the Pats, but just barely.

San Francisco 28, Seattle 31. OT. The best road team (San Francisco) versus the best home field advantage (CenturyLink Field) where earthquake detection machines routinely note when the Seahawks score. Where we have such a "something has to give" match-up, I'd like to look elsewhere. Special Teams, I think, will be very important. In this case, the average starting position after a punt of San Francisco is much better than Seattle. (42.1 versus 39.9 yards net average). When you look at kick-offs, there's a similar situation where San Francisco has a better average than Seattle. (22.7 versus 22.1 yards average) I think this means that San Francisco will have more possessions than Seattle (79 to 73 punts) with slightly better field position, and that maybe all the difference in this very even match-up.

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:22 pm

Super Bowl Time!

Okay, so everytime I hear about a "something's gotta give" match-up, which in this case is going to be Denver's Offense versus Seattle's Defense (#1 vs #1), I have to look at the other side. I think the best way to limit Denver's offense is to keep Denver's defense on the field as much as possible. This means #Beastmode (aka Marshawn Lynch) has to have a really good 200 yd plus performance. (Wilson's running wouldn't hurt either.) Seattle has averaged 26.1 points this year versus a whopping 37.9 points by Denver. I don't know if I can assume that Denver will score up to their average, especially if Seattle's defense is expected to dare Manning to throw more than 20 yards downfield. Weather is expected to be above average (42ºF !). Madden 25's official simulation has Denver 31, Seattle 28, OT. I think that's how it's going to go, so we'll go with that. Denver 31, Seattle 28, OT.

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by The Cid » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:11 am

...And, once again, the flashy passing offense falls short against the tough running game and relentless defense. Some things never change.
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Deacon
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by Deacon » Mon Feb 03, 2014 5:50 am

Well, yeah, but it's hard to tell whether to credit Seattle's defense with the win or blame Denver's offense. Special teams gave up a run back on the opening kickoff of the second half, and between fumbles and continual pressure on Manning, I'm not sure what else could've happened. We already knew Denver's defense was so-so, but they really shat the bed tonight...
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:06 pm

Seattle punched the horse and they never recovered.

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Rorschach
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by Rorschach » Mon Feb 03, 2014 2:19 pm

...like Mongo?

As a foreigner, the best part of your American Super Bowls is the adverts for up-coming movies.
To Let

ampersand
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:21 am

Yup, exactly like Mongo.

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Deacon
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by Deacon » Tue Feb 04, 2014 4:45 am

No, like Rusty Charley. The original.
The follies which a man regrets the most in his life are those which he didn't commit when he had the opportunity. - Helen Rowland, A Guide to Men, 1922

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Re: NFL 2013

Post by The Cid » Tue Feb 04, 2014 2:46 pm

Deacon wrote:Well, yeah, but it's hard to tell whether to credit Seattle's defense with the win or blame Denver's offense.
I'd say Denver's offense was accomplished enough coming into this game that we can credit Seattle's defense. It certainly wasn't weather.

Seattle really broke Denver's offense. Manning hasn't been under that kind of pressure all season, but the Seahawks were in his face all game. That was what New England and San Diego couldn't do--get into the backfield and make Manning uncomfortable. All game, the only real effective play Denver had was the WR screen to Thomas, which wasn't going to move the ball fast enough to keep up with the Seahawks.
Deacon wrote:We already knew Denver's defense was so-so, but they really shat the bed tonight...
Injuries caught up with them finally. It helps that, while they couldn't pass as well as the Broncos do, the Seahawks actually have a balanced offense while the Broncos have a one-dimensional team. (It's just a phenomenal dimension.)
Rorschach wrote:As a foreigner, the best part of your American Super Bowls is the adverts for up-coming movies.
Super Bowl Sunday and the night of the Academy Awards are the two biggest nights of the year for the advertising industry. The Super Bowl commercials are a kind of tradition themselves. Everyone loves ads with kids in them. Evidently people did not like the ad featuring the Muppets. Bob Dylan hawking Chrysler during the Super Bowl might have given a few hippies heart attacks. (Actual conversation in the room: "Who is that guy?" "That's Bob Dylan." "Nooooo, that can't be Dylan, this is an ad for Chrysler. Bob Dylan wouldn't advertise for Chrysler." "I'm serious though, that's definitely Bob Dylan. Who else could it be?") TurboTax had this really clever ad where they compared watching the Super Bowl without your team being involved to watching the girl you liked in high school dance with someone else at the prom. (It's not, by the way. It's more like seeing someone else drive the car of your dreams. Wish it was you, but you still want to see it go around the track and make a little noise.) To me, it was really weird that Maserati took out a huge ad early in the game and served as one of the billboard sponsors. ("Brought to you by _____" = a billboard in TV and Radio terminology.) Since when did those super-high-end car makers advertise?
Rorschach wrote:...like Mongo?
Richard Sherman only pawn in game of life.
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Re: NFL 2013

Post by ampersand » Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:39 pm

The best commercials was the Stephen Colbert ones for pistachio nuts, only because of the eagle wearing a suit and radioactive green tie. Although I have to admit the second half of that with Colbert's head splitting open and a green Colbert's head appearing was really weird.

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